Paul J. Carroll, CFP®

Well, it looks like the economy is finally normalizing. So, the question now becomes "what's next for 2024?" I just got back from a fascinating luncheon at ACG Houston. ACG is the Association for Corporate Growth. We had an economist from First Horizon Bank in New York City speak to the group, and it was a very interesting presentation, one that I somewhat agreed with. Basically, they pointed out what we've talked about - inflation is pretty much under control. It's at 3% and falling. The job market has loosened up. We've gone from "you just can't find people" to "you can find them but they're a little bit expensive". So, that's at least manageable for most employers. A Goldilocks Economic Recovery The interest rate hikes are clearly over and there are some wild bets going on in the market over when and how low these long rates are gonna...

  We've had a sweet rally in the last quarter in both stocks and bonds. So with this beautiful end to 2023, what's the outlook for 2024? The Markets Historically, future returns are driven by attractive valuations, and so when we're looking for the threats and the promises we look at evaluations. The biggest threat to the markets or within the markets are the Magnificent Seven. We've talked about these, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla. A lot of the Magnificent Seven story is highly correlated with the AI stocks and the AI story. The rest of the markets are actually fairly valued. They haven't done a lot in the last few years. In fact, this recent rally, somewhat, has been a more normal rally and not so much a Magnificent Seven rally. And so with markets fairly valued, that means there's all sorts of opportunities as long...

With inflation falling fairly rapidly already at 3%, is it time to rethink commodities? What is a Commodity? Let's begin by defining commodities. The basic goods and raw materials typically sold on specialist exchanges. We're talking about oil, gold, wheat, pork bellies, and there's a number of ways we can own these commodities; four fundamental ways to own commodities. First, we can just own the commodity, direct physical ownership. That's a bit of a pain. Gold coins may be the easiest, but you've still got to buy them. They usually have a pretty big bid-ask spread when you buy a coin, and then you've got to store them somewhere safe. If you want to buy a barrel of oil and bet on the oil market, you've got to figure out where you're going to put those 55 gallon drums. Investing in Commodities Most people don't want to deal with transaction...

Selling a business is a complex and often emotional journey, especially for entrepreneurs who have poured their heart and soul into their ventures. In this era, entrepreneurs are heralded as the champions of modern innovation, effortlessly navigating turbulent waters to create success. Accustomed to the driver's seat, these individuals rarely falter when making executive decisions for their enterprises. However, while they may excel in running their business, the process of selling it introduces unforeseen challenges, predominantly stemming from human nature. This post delves into nine of these human-centric traps, aiming to equip business owners with the insight they need to navigate a sale successfully. 1. The Dangers of "Unknown Unknowns" – the Halo Effect Recognizing one’s own limitations is paramount in business, especially when selling. Coined by Donald Rumsfeld, "unknown unknowns" aptly describes the unforeseen pitfalls lying in ambush for entrepreneurs. A seasoned business owner's innate confidence, while admirable, can...

I'm okay, but things are terrible. There's a general sense that economic conditions right now are absolutely awful and that the outlook is terrible - a sense that is completely and totally refuted by reality. Why is it that the general public feels this way, and how is this impacting the way they invest? The Economic Numbers: Inflation, Interest Rates, the Markets, and Employment So here's a few numbers for perspective. In the last video we talked about how the inflation rate in October was 3%. Interest rate hikes are probably over. Markets have avoided a painful correction. In fact, in November, they had a lovely month. Bond markets are stabilized. Unemployment is 3.9%. Economists call that full employment. Anyone who is able to work and wants a job can get one in this economy. Real Wages Real wages, that's wages after inflation, are up 3% since the end of...

We've all heard, "what goes up must come down." Well, on an interesting twist, what's come down very hard in the form of the bond market looks like it's ready to recover a little bit. Playing the Yield Curve Since 2020, the 30-year Treasury bond has lost 50% of its value. For what some people would consider a safe investment, that's a pretty brutal experience. Combined with an equities rollback through last year, a 60/40 portfolio had the greatest hit since the Great Depression. But on a twist on "what goes up must come down," when something comes down hard enough, it might actually be ready to come back up. This is a great opportunity and it looks like it's time to start playing the yield curve. What do I mean by that? We've had our clients in very short-term bonds for three years now. It's time to start getting...

Everybody's heard of the S&P 500, but maybe what's more relevant is the S&P 493. We all consider the S&P 500 to be an important benchmark for investing activities. However, the 493 might be more accurate, and that's because there are seven stocks, and we call them the Magnificent Seven that significantly distort this index. You're familiar with these companies, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook, or Meta, Tesla, and NVIDIA. I just read yesterday, NVIDIA's chips for AI are selling $40,000 for a little chip. So that's the Magnificent Seven. Valuation wise, they make up 29% of the index, despite only being 1.4% of the 500 stocks, and that's because the S&P 500 index is what's known as a cap weighted index. So the Magnificent Seven make up 29% of the value of the index despite only being 1.4% of the stocks. The larger the company, the greater the influence...

Last week, we enjoyed a great market rally. We enjoyed it, that is, if you weren't timing the market and afraid because of the previous downturn. Friday's hiring report was below expectations, and that's great news. Expectations were 180,000. It actually came in at 150,000 and for perspective, September was a hair under 300,000. What does that mean? That means the economy is beginning to lose steam. After years of being overheated, that's not a bad thing because the slowing economy gives the Fed room to put an end to the rate hikes. Rising interest rates hurt asset values. They hurt home values, they hurt mortgages, they hurt stocks, they even hurt bonds. Sure enough, last week, the S&P rose almost 6%. It's the strongest rally since November 2022. Moreover, yields on various bond durations dropped a little bit. Fortunately, we've already been moving out on the yield curve, so...